Women will decide this race. But the appeals to men are eye opening.
I had planned to write a few posts before Election Day because I had things I needed to get out of my head, but work things had other plans. Thus, this post is going to be a DUMP of a few ideas in quick succession. Let’s go.
How are white women going to vote?
There are a lot of voting blocs to watch tomorrow, but key among them is white women. White women make up the largest voting bloc in the US at the intersection of race and gender, and key swing states in the midwest are full of them!
In 2016, white women went for Trump with 47% (45% supported Clinton), and in 2020, 53% of white women supported Trump (46% for Biden). As a group a majority of women support Democrats because of women of color.
So, will 2024 be different? Maybe. Increasingly, white college educated women are shifting their allegiance to Democrats, and they are a high turnout group, so that bodes well for Democrats. But in the 2022 election, after the Dobbs decision, 55% of white women voted for Republicans.
That said, I do expect women to turn out in large number, and for that to benefit the Harris campaign. I also think young voters are going to turn out (maybe bigger than they did in 2020 when 50% voted), and that will also benefit Harris.
For a deep dive into the history of white women voters, check out this long read by Nikole Hannah-Jones for the New York Times Magazine, published November 2nd.
Trump’s closing message to women
You probably saw the viral campaign ad, voiced by Julia Roberts, where a MAGA wife and her husband go to the polls, and the assumption is that once the MAGA wife can get a minute away from her husband she secretly voters for Harris.
This story might be uncommon, but it doesn’t mean it doesn’t happen. A recent poll by the Barbara Lee Family Foundation found that 20% of Republican women say they sometimes or regularly feel pressure from their partner to agree with them politically (compared to 16% of Democrats. Not an enormous partisan difference, but still interesting).
The reaction from GOP-aligned folks has been telling. While a measured response from a political party would be to suggest that their party’s men would never try to control their wives’ votes, the reaction by Trump surrogates has been quite the opposite. Jesse Watters, a Fox News host, likened the choice to having an affair. Charlie Kirk, the cofounder of Turning Point USA (a key figure in the 2024 Trump campaign) called it “repulsive,” “gross” and nauseating.” Oh, he also suggests the husband is “a sweet guy” and the provider for this woman who dares to undermine him. Not sure what he felt the need to add to this narrative, but it speaks volumes. These reactions just serve to make the point of the ad, don’t they?
Couple this reaction with Trump saying recently he will protect women “whether they like it or not,” and the closing message of the GOP to women isn’t one that will resonate widely.
Harris’s closing message to men
Democrats made this same ad for men, narrated by George Clooney. It has about 1/5 the number of views as the Roberts ad, so clearly less offensive.
The message here to men is this: To protect the people in your life (your wife and kids), vote for Harris. This is similar to Democratic messaging in 2020 directed at men. This ad by the Lincoln Project, which I genuinely liked, is a clear example:
This message was for men who voted for Trump in 2016, and was telling those men it is okay to admit they made a mistake and they can correct that mistake and vote for Biden — a good dad like them.
Like I said, I think those two ads hit a similar tone, and one I think is compelling for men who relish in their role as caregivers.
But this new ad by the Lincoln Project loses the sentimentality.
Here, Sam Elliott tells men “so are we really going back down the same fucking road?” …And “what the hell are you waiting for? Because if it’s the woman thing, it’s time to get over that… Its time to be a man and vote for a woman.” This one doesn’t hit the mark, in my opinion.
Another ad giving men permission to vote for Harris is this ad by White Guys for Harris.
The ad from White Guys for Harris is sympathetic to white men who are feeling aggrieved by changing social norms, which is a lot of men out there, so I think that framing makes sense. And the White Guys for Harris ad also has an element of social pressure like the Clooney ad. It says if someone gives you crap about your vote, “tell them it’s none of their damn business.” So, another thread to pull at (but I don’t have time ha).
I find these ads interesting because they speak to what these organizations think men (who could be persuaded, not the Charlie Kirks of the world) need to hear. And apparently it’s permission to vote for a woman.
A couple men who need no such permission are Billy on the Street and Will Ferrell who are very unapologetically voting for Harris. And they come across a lot of men in NYC who also aren’t embarrassed by that choice.
Alright, here is an enormous reading list about the centrality of gender identity in this presidential race for your interest:
They’re Just Over It: How Trump Has Converted Male Frustration Into a Movement Politico.com.
Gender is a Persistent Force in Presidential Elections. Forbes.
They Want to Ensure That, This Time, White Women Vote for a Woman. The New York Times.
The Stakes Are Different For a Woman Running in 2024. Here’s Why. The Daily Beast.
Trump Says He’ll Protect Women, ‘Like It or Not,’ Evoking His History of Misogyny. The New York Times.
Beyond the Gender Gap: Presidential Politics is a “Masculinity Contest.” The Christian Science Monitor.
Into the Gender Gap. The New York Times.
Why the “Secret Vote” is Dominating the Elections Last Days. Fast Company.
What’s in your TikTok Feed? As Elections Near, it May Depend on Your Gender. Washington Post.